School of Public Health and Community Medicine

Raina MacIntyre


Raina MacIntyre has a research track record in risk analysis methods for biosecurity, with a focus on bioterrorism recognition. She is working on rapid epidemic intelligence methods for outbreak surveillance. She has pioneered concepts such as recognition of unnatural epidemics. Developing new tools and methods for detection of unnatural epidemics is a major area of current research within her program. Asking the question “natural or unnatural” is the first step to recognising bioterrorism, and is absent in public health culture. Toward changing thinking in this area, she conceived and led the creation of a groundbreaking course at UNSW, Bioterrorism and Health Intelligence. She has published on dual-use research of concern, and the lack of global preparedness for dealing with new scientific advances such as the gene editing tool CRISPR Cas9.

Her research is underpinned by extensive field outbreak investigation experience. She is a graduate of the only Australian Field Epidemiology Training program, the MAE at ANU, and has extensive experience in shoe-leather epidemiology of infectious diseases outbreaks including influenza, meningococcal disease, clostridium perfringens, hepatitis A, legionella, mycoplasma, pertussis and gastroenteritis to name a few. Her in-depth understanding of the science of outbreak investigation draws from this experience combined with her academic training through a Masters and PhD in Epidemiology. Her passion for field epidemiology led her to co-found the ARM network for Australian outbreak response. She does research on the transmission dynamics and prevention of infectious diseases, particularly respiratory pathogens such as influenza, tuberculosis and other vaccine-preventable infections. She has also done research on using risk-analysis methods for analysing emerging infectious diseases outbreaks such as Ebola and MERS-CoV.  

She leads a NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence in Epidemic Response which is international and multi-sectoral, and addresses gaps in global systems for epidemic response. She has led the development of a global epidemic observatory, EpiWatch, within this Centre, which has a focus on detecting unusual or abberant outbreaks.


She won many career awards including the Sir Henry Wellcome Medal and Prize, from the Association of Military Surgeons of the United States in 2007 for her work on a risk-priority scoring system for category A bioterrorism agents; and the highest national award in infectious diseases, the Frank Fenner Award for Research in Infectious Diseases in 2003.

She has over 300 peer reviewed publications, sits on editorial boards for BMJ Open, Epidemiology and Infection and Vaccine, and has been on many national and international expert committees in her field.  


Selected publications

Heslop DJ, Chughtai AA, Bui CM, MacIntyre CR. Publicly available software tools for decision-makers during an emergent epidemic—Systematic evaluation of utility and usability. June 2017, Epidemics. Full text
Muscatello DJ;Chughtai AA;Heywood A;Gardner LM;Heslop DJ;MacIntyre CR, 2017, 'Translation of Real-Time Infectious Disease Modeling into Routine Public Health Practice.', Emerg Infect Dis, vol. 23,

Wong ZS Y;Bui CM;Chughtai AA;Macintyre CR, 2017, 'A systematic review of early modelling studies of Ebola virus disease in West Africa - CORRIGENDUM.', Epidemiol Infect, pp. 1,

Narasimhan P;MacIntyre CR;Mathai D;Wood J, 2017, 'High rates of latent TB infection in contacts and the wider community in South India.', Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg, pp. 1 - 7,

Bui CM;Gardner L;MacIntyre R;Sarkar S, 2017, 'Influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 in China: A spatial risk analysis', PLoS ONE, vol. 12,

Bui CM;Chughtai AA;Adam DC;MacIntyre CR, 2017, 'An overview of the epidemiology and emergence of influenza A infection in humans over time', Archives of Public Health, vol. 75,

Awadh A;Chughtai AA;Dyda A;Sheikh M;Heslop DJ;MacIntyre CR, 2017, 'Does Zika Virus Cause Microcephaly - Applying the Bradford Hill Viewpoints.', PLoS Curr, vol. 9,

Wong ZS Y;Bui CM;Chughtai AA;MacIntyre CR, 2017, 'A systematic review of early modelling studies of Ebola virus disease in West Africa', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 145, pp. 1069 - 1094,

Moa AM;Muscatello DJ;Turner RM;MacIntyre CR, 2017, 'Epidemiology of influenza B in Australia: 2001-2014 influenza seasons', Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses, vol. 11, pp. 102 - 109,

Chughtai AA;Wang Q;Dung TC;Macintyre CR, 2017, 'The presence of fever in adults with influenza and other viral respiratory infections', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 145, pp. 148 - 155,

Gardner LM;Chughtai AA;MacIntyre CR, 2016, 'Risk of global spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) via the air transport network', Journal of travel medicine, vol. 23,

MacIntyre RR;Engells TE, 2016, 'Current Biological Threats to Frontline Law Enforcement: From the Insider Threat to DIY Bio', Law Enforcement Executive Forum, vol. 16, pp. 25 - 37, ROS ID: 844583
Rosewell A;Effler P;Yapa C;Telfer B;Musto J;MacIntyre R, 2016, 'Ebola outbreak in west Africa: Considerations for strengthening Australia’s international health emergency response: It is time for a common vision and strategy for deploying australian expertise to i', Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 204, pp. 258 - 259,, ROS ID: 812753
Engells TE;MacIntyre R, 2016, 'Do it yourself biology - committed hobbyists or dangers to the public safety?', Journal of healthcare protection management : publication of the International Association for Hospital Security, vol. 32, pp. 39 - 54,, ROS ID: 836088

MacIntyre CR, Chughtai AA. Recurrence and reinfection– a new paradigm for management of Ebola virus disease (EVD).Int J Infect Dis 2015; 43:58-61

 MacIntyre, CR. Biopreparedness in the age of genetically engineered pathogens and open access science - an urgent need for a paradigm shift. Military Medicine, 2015; 180(9):943-9. doi: 10.7205/MILMED-D-14-00482.

  *MacIntyre, C. R. Re-thinking the ethics of dual-use research of concern on transmissible pathogens. Environment, Systems and Decisions, 2015;35 (1):129-132. 10.1007/s10669-015-9534-9  

*MacIntyre, CR, Travaglia, J. Heightened vulnerability, reduced oversight and ethical breaches on the Internet in the in West African Ebola epidemic. The American Journal of Bioethics, 2015.

Bui, C., A. Bethmont, A. A. Chughtai, L. Gardner, S. Sarkar, S. Hassan, H. Seale and C. R. MacIntyre, 2015: A Systematic Review of the Comparative Epidemiology of Avian and Human Influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 – Lessons and Unanswered Questions. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, Jan 29, 2015. [Epub ahead of print]

 MacIntyre CR, Chughtai AA, Seale H, Richards GA, Davidson PM. Uncertainty, risk analysis and change for Ebola personal protective equipment guidelines. Int J Nurs Stud. 2015; 52(5):899-903. doi:

*MacIntyre, C.R., Chughtai, A.A., Seale, H., Richards, G.A., Davidson, P.M. Respiratory protection for healthcare workers treating Ebola virus disease: are facemasks sufficient to meet occupational health and safety obligations? International Journal of Nursing Studies (2014), 51(11):1421-1426.

 *MacIntyre CR. The discrepant epidemiology of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Environ Syst Decis. 2014:1-8.

 *GardnerLM  and MacIntyreCR. Unanswered questions about the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). BMC Research Notes2014, 7:358 doi:10.1186/1756-0500-7-358 

*Lauren M. GardnerDavid ReyAnita E. HeywoodRenin Toms, James WoodS. Travis WallerMohamud SheikhC. Raina MacIntyre. A scenario-based evaluation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and the Hajj. Risk Analysis 2014;34(8):1391-400. .doi: 10.1111/risa.12253

 *Polkinghorne BG, Massey, PD, Durrheim, DN, Byrnes, T, MacIntyre, CR.  Prevention and surveillance of public health risks during extended mass gatherings in rural areas: The experience of the Tamworth Country Music Festival, Australia. Public Health. Volume 127, Issue 1, January 2013, Pages 32–38.

  Li J, Seale H, Ray P, Wang Q, Yang P, Li S, Zhang Y and MacIntyre CR. E-Health Preparedness Assessment in the Context of an Influenza Pandemic: A Qualitative Study in China. British Medical Journal (BMJ) Open 2013 Mar 13;3(3). pii: e002293.

 Li J, Ray P, Seale H, Bakshi A and MacIntyre CR. Tool for E-Health Preparedness Assessment in the Context of an Influenza Pandemic. International Journal of E-Health and Medical Communications, 2013. Volume 4, Issue 2, 16 pages.         

 Li J, Seale H, Ray P, Tariq A and MacIntyre CR. Are Organizations Prepared for E-Health Implementation to Respond to Pandemic Influenza? International Journal of Biomedical Engineering and Technology 2013; 11(3): 215-230.   

 *Muscatello DJ, Barr M, Thackway SV, MacIntyre CR. Epidemiology of influenza-like illness during pandemic (H1N1) 2009, New South Wales, Australia. Emerg Infect Dis 7(7):1240-7, 2011 Jul.

*Muscatello DJ. Cretikos MA. Macintyre CR. All-cause mortality during first wave of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, New South Wales, Australia, 2009. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 16(9):1396-402, 2010 Sep.

Peng Yang, Ying Deng, Xinghuo Pang, Weixian Shi, Xinyu Li, Lili Tian, Yi Zhang, Xiaoli Wang, Fang Huang, MacIntyre C. Raina and Quanyi Wang.  Severe, critical and fatal cases of 2009 H1N1 influenza in China.  Journal of Infection, 2010;61(4):277-83.

 *Heywood AE. Watkins RE. Pattanasin S. Iamsirithaworn S. Nilvarangkul K. Macintyre CR. Self-reported symptoms of infection among travelers departing from Sydney and Bangkok airports. Journal of Travel Medicine. 17(4):243-9, 2010 Jul.

*Rosewell A, Wang B, Saksena NK, MacIntyre CR, Lindley R, Chiu C, Shineberg C, Clarke E, McPhie K, Ratnamohan KM, Booy R, Dwyer DE. Failure to Detect Oseltamivir Resistance by Rolling Circle Amplification and Sequencing Following Use in an Influenza A (H3N2) Outbreak at an Aged Care Facility. Journal of Antivirals & Antiretrovirals. 2009; 1; 56-61.

 *Wood JG, McCaw J, Becker N, Nolan T, MacIntyre CR. Optimal dosing and dynamic distribution of vaccines in an influenza pandemic. American Journal Of Epidemiology. 169(12):1517-24, 2009 Jun 15.

 *Seale H. Weston KM. Dwyer DE. Zhu M. Allchin L. Booy R. MacIntyre CR. The use of oseltamivir during an influenza B outbreak in a chronic care hospital. Influenza & Other Respiratory Viruses. 3(1):15-20, 2009 Jan.

Watkins RE, Cooke FC, Donovan RJ, Macintyre CR, Itzwerth R, Plant AJ. Influenza pandemic preparedness: motivation for protection among small and medium businesses in Australia. BMC Public Health. 2007 Jul 17;7(1):157. 

*Wood JG, Zamani N, MacIntyre CR, Becker NG. Effects of internal border control on spread of pandemic influenza. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2007;13:1038-1045.

 *MacIntyre CR, Secull A, Lane M, Plant AJ. Development of a risk priority score for category A bioterrorism agents as an aid for public health policy. Military Medicine. 171(7):589-94, 2006 Jul. Awarded the 2007 Sir Henry Wellcome Medal and Prize from the Association of Military Surgeons of the United States of America for this work.

 *Thursky KA, Buising KL, Bak N, MacGregor L, Street AC, MacIntyre CR, Presneill JL,   Cade JF, Brown GV. Reduction of broad spectrum antimicrobial use with computerised decision support in an ICU. International Journal for Quality in Health Care. 2006 Jun;18(3):224-31.

*MacIntyre CR. Empson M. Boardman C. Sindhusake D. Lokan J. Brown GV. Risk factors for colonization with vancomycin-resistant enterococci in a Melbourne hospital. Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology. 22(10):624-9, 2001 October.